Crude OIl Drops In Asia After IEA Report

Posted October 19, 2017

Global supply and demand for crude oil will be largely balanced next year, as growth in consumption helps and an output curb works its way through stocks, the IEA said in its monthly report. Estimates from 10 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal showed that USA oil inventories are projected to have fallen by 3.2 million barrels, on average, in the week ended October 13.

In response, USA crude climbed 0.9 percent to $51.92 a barrel, not far from $52.85 touched late last month - a level not seen since April.

"In the case of Iran, there are likely no immediate impacts on oil flows and there remains high uncertainty on potential reintroduction of U.S. secondary sanctions".

South Korea's top oil refiner SK Energy has bought 6.5 million barrels of USA crude to be delivered between November and January as it stepped up imports of the competitively priced oil, a company spokeswoman said.

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Iraqi forces began moving at midnight on Sunday towards oil fields held by Kurdish Peshmerga fighters near the oil-rich city of Kirkuk.

After Iraqi government forces captured the major Kurdish-held oil city of Kirkuk on Monday in a response to Kurdish independence referendum, which increased concerns about oil supply, the oil prices held near their highest levels in nearly three weeks.

While Iraq's government is clashing with Kurdish forces in the north of the OPEC nation, raising the prospect of output disruptions in the region, both sides have an incentive to keep oil flowing due to low production costs and "high revenue" available per barrel, according to Goldman Sachs.

In an otherwise typically quiet Monday market, the price of Crude Oil is up nearly 1.7% since this week's open, as at the time of writing.

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US President Donald Trump refused to confirm Iran's compliance over a nuclear deal that has left Congress 60 days to consider implementing new sanctions against the country.

With ongoing supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) further tightening the market, analysts were revising upward their crude price forecasts for the rest of the year and into 2018.

OPEC and other key producers made a decision to curb oil output by 1.8 million bpd from January this year to March next year. "That's one of the reasons we think that oil prices can go up further".

The euro slipped 0.2 percent to $1.1799 and was poised for its third straight day of losses on lingering concerns about the eurozone after a conservative Austrian leader secured a victory in parliamentary elections at the weekend.

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"We see Brent averaging $54 this quarter and $52.50 per barrel in 1H18, compared with our previous forecasts of $50 and $49.50 per barrel respectively", it said.