Euro jumps to January 2015 highs on European Central Bank speculation

Posted August 01, 2017

Eurozone GDP numbers this morning are expected to show that the economy in the currency bloc expanded 0.6% in the three months to June.

Growth of consumer price in the euro zone was recorded at 1.3 per cent, which is enough to argue that risk of deflation has disappeared but it is too little to meet Draghi's goal of just under 2 per cent.

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The latest unemployment news was also encouraging with the jobless rate sliding to an 8 year low 9.1%. That is the reason we are seeing the DAX move lower on every piece of good data from the Eurozone.

While UK growth was slower over the first half of this year, some business surveys have suggested it could quicken in the second half. The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone is due at 4:00 am ET. His ultra-easy monetary policy is partly behind the robust economic recovery, showing more effect this year as growth in bank loans to the private sector hit a 10-year high in May. The reading was well above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction and beat economists' forecasts for 54.4. Strong economic growth should steer the European Central Bank towards reining in asset purchases, but policymakers are still waiting on inflation.

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While a Purchasing Managers' Index pointed to broad-based economic growth, price pressures showed further signs of easing in July. "It would bring the rate in line with our estimate of fair value and in all likelihood the market will overshoot". Doubts over Donald Trump's ability to push through any sort of meaningful policy changes and a pushing back of expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes has now seen the Dollar index relinquish nearly 9% of its value since the beginning of March alone.

"The survey pointed to a further marked easing of price pressures in the manufacturing sector in July, which fuels hope that United Kingdom inflation is close to peaking and will go down well at the Bank of England", said Archer.

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