NWS Posts Severe Storms Watch for SE Colorado for Thursday Afternoon

Posted June 30, 2017

Thursday severe weather outlook map...

Later today, there is an enhanced risk of severe weather as a cold front approaches from the west, touching off a second round of storms.

A few severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and into this evening across the plains.

Winds will stay strong out of the south at 20 to 30 miles per hour. This area will be in the wake of a mid-level trough, with height rises and perhaps subtle subsidence aloft. Small hail and locally heavy rainfall may also accompany the strongest storms.

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The Weather Service said there's a 60 percent chance for showers and storms overnight Thursday into Friday, mainly after 1 a.m., and again Friday, with possible rain totals of a quarter- to half-inch both periods; a 20 percent chance Friday night; a 30 percent chance Saturday and Saturday night; a 20 percent chance Sunday and Sunday night; and a 50 percent chance Monday.

"Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon through evening", said the outlook issued by the National Weather Service Binghamton office.

In addition, flash flooding could quickly become a serious concern Friday night, if storms begin training over the same spots. which does look possible in particular across NE Oklahoma, NWAR and the River Valley.

"As storms continue to push eastward and expand into northern Oklahoma and northwestern IL through the evening and overnight, wind will be the dominant hazard", said McGinnis.

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There is a tornado threat for a good portion of mid-Missouri, but it remains a low threat.

Thursday night could pose a slightly different threat.

The storms are expected to end by midnight, with only isolated showers and storms lingering into the overnight hours. Model point forecast soundings indicate steepening low-level lapse rates and "inverted-V" boundary layer profiles developing across the region during the afternoon, with weak to moderate instability also developing.

We will have a break Saturday afternoon and scattered storms will form Sunday.

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