Hurricane center says storm 'likely' to develop in Gulf soon

Posted June 19, 2017

The National Hurricane Center gives this area of disturbed weather a 60% chance for development the next two days, with a 90% chance in the next five days. Gradual development is expected to continue as it moves northwestward over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the south and central part of the Gulf of Mexico during the rest of the weekend.

A broad area of low pressure/tropical wave located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. If development occurs, the system would be known as Tropical or Sub-tropical Storm Bret or Cindy, depending on the development of Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 which is approaching the Windward Islands.

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During the beginning of the hurricane season, the Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Atlantic - near the U.S. Eastern Seaboard - are the most favorable areas for tropical development.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday, if necessary.

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The system may take shape over the central Gulf of Mexico and be pulled northward to the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana. As of now, the models are trying to forecast something that doesn't exist.

A strong tropical wave, dubbed Invest 92L, has become better organized over the Atlantic Ocean far south of the Cabo Verde Islands.

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The main concern with Saturday's storms is heavy rain that could lead to some localized flooding issues, especially in poor drainage areas and along creeks and streams. If a tropical system does develop, the combination of wind shear, and relatively cool waters will most likely prevent the development of a strong tropical storm or hurricane.